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Is it time for an economic recovery?

Nick Fuller • July 30, 2020
The first half of 2020 has been a rollercoaster ride. The COVID-19 pandemic completely altered our way of life and threw the economy into a tailspin. Most states have started the reopening process, but there is still significant uncertainty about the long-term impact of coronavirus and how long the pandemic will continue.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently said the economy faces a “long road” to recovery, and predicted the process may take through 2022.1 While the recovery may be a long-term journey, there have been some signs of hope in recent months:

Stock Market Returns

The stock market had been enjoying the longest bull market in history before the coronavirus pandemic hit.2 The bull market came to an abrupt end starting in late February. On February 20, the S&P hit a high of 3373. From that point through March 23, the S&P fell to 2237, a decline of 33.7%.3

However, since that time, the market has increased to 3115 through June 18. That’s an increase of 39.25%. The S&P is nearly back to its pre-COVID levels.3

Of course, it’s impossible to predict the future direction of the markets. Just because the market has been on an upswing doesn’t mean it will continue. A spike in cases or a second round of shutdowns could send the markets back into a decline.

Unemployment

The pandemic has driven unemployment to record-high levels. Through mid-June, the country had 13 consecutive weeks with more than 1 million new jobless claims. Prior to the coronavirus pandemic, the record for a single week was 695,000 in May 1982.4

The good news is that jobless claims have been declining. At the beginning of the pandemic, weekly jobless claims exceeded 6 million. In fact, up until late-May, they exceeded 2 million. So while jobless claims remain at record highs, they are on the decline. The amount of continuing claims has also dropped from 25 million in early May to just over 20 million in early June.4

Consumer Spending

Consumer spending was impacted significantly by the COVID-19 pandemic. That’s not surprising, given most states were effectively shut down for two months. In April, consumer spending dropped by 16.4%, a record monthly decline.5

In May, consumer spending set another record—this time for biggest monthly increase. The figure rose by 17.7%, driven by large increases in clothing (188%), furniture (+90%), sporting goods (+88%), and electronics (+55).5

Consumer spending by itself doesn’t mean the economy is on the path to recovery. There are still plenty of uncertainties in the economy. However, it is a good sign that consumer spending is nearly back to its pre-pandemic levels.

This is uncharted territory for all of us. The situation and data changes so fast that it’s impossible to project where the economy may be headed. A comprehensive strategy that aligns with your goals and risk-tolerance can keep you on track to meet your long-term objectives.

Let’s connect today and talk about your concerns, questions and challenges. At Fuller Financial, we can help you develop and implement a strategy. Contact us today and let’s start the conversation.


1https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-sees-rates-near-zero-through-2022-says-asset-purchases-will-continue-2020-06-10
2https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/11/investing/bear-market-stocks-recession/index.html
3https://www.google.com/search?q=INDEXSP:.INX&tbm=fin&stick=H4sIAAAAAAAAAONgecRowi3w8sc9YSntSWtOXmNU5eIKzsgvd80rySypFBLnYoOyeKW4uTj1c_UNDM0qi4t5FrHyePq5uEYEB1jpefpFAAAU6wGESAAAAA#scso=_hL3sXpOQHsnWtAal04OQCA1:0
4https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/18/weekly-jobless-claims.html
5https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-spending-comes-back-with-a-vengeance-in-may-morning-brief-100600715.html

Investment advisory services offered by duly registered individuals through ChangePath, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. ChangePath, LLC and Fuller Financial, LLC are unaffiliated entities.

Licensed Insurance Professional. This information is designed to provide a general overview with regard to the subject matter covered and is not state specific. The authors, publisher and host are not providing legal, accounting or specific advice for your situation. By providing your information, you give consent to be contacted about the possible sale of an insurance or annuity product. This information has been provided by a Licensed Insurance Professional and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting insurance professional. The statements and opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change at any time. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, presenting insurance professional makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. This material has been prepared for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal, tax or investment advice. This information has been provided by a Licensed Insurance Professional and is not sponsored or endorsed by the Social Security Administration or any government agency. 20195 - 2020/6/22
By Nick Fuller August 21, 2020
The United States set a somber record on Thursday, July 16, 2020, with more than 75,000 new COVID-19 cases. In fact, the U.S. set new single-day COVID-19 records 11 times between June 17 and July 16. Dr. Anthony Fauci predicts the country will soon top over 100,000 new cases each day. 1 COVID-related deaths are also increasing in some states. Florida set its single day record for COVID deaths on July 16, with 156. Nine other states also set single-day death records the same week. 1 The resurgence in coronavirus cases has led some states to enact new measures. More than half of all states now have some kind of mask mandate. California has even rolled back its reopening, closing bars, indoor dining, gyms, and more. 2 What does this mean for the economic recovery? And what does it mean for your financial future? It’s impossible to predict what will happen in the short-term, but knowing where things stand today may help you make important decisions with your strategy. 
By Nick Fuller August 19, 2020
Social Security is a critical piece of the income puzzle for most retirees. In fact, half of married retirees and nearly 70% of unmarried retirees rely on Social Security for more than 50% of their retirement income. 1 Your Social Security benefit amount is based on a few factors, including your career earnings and your age at the time you file for benefits. However, your benefit amount isn’t locked-in forever. It often increases each year because of something called COLA. 2 COLA stands for “cost-of-living adjustment.” It’s an annual increase in the benefit amount to help recipients cover increases in their cost of living. In 2020, COLA was 1.6%, down from a 2.8% increase in 2019. 2 Since 2000, Social Security benefits have increased by a cumulative 53% because of COLA. The problem? Retiree spending has increased by more than 99%. 2 While COLA can be helpful, it often isn’t enough to match inflation. In fact, since 2009, COLA has averaged only 1.4% annually. 2 Fortunately, you can implement other strategies to protect your spending power and combat inflation. Below are a few ideas to consider: 
By Nick Fuller August 17, 2020
What are the biggest expenses you’ll face in retirement? Healthcare? Housing? Travel? All of those costs could be significant, but one of the biggest could be taxes. That’s right. Just because you’re done working, doesn’t mean you’re done paying taxes. Many sources of retirement income, like Social Security, pensions, and retirement account distributions, are taxable. That doesn’t even include the wide range of other taxes you could face, like property taxes, sales tax, and more. Taxes may be a part of life, but they can also be a drain on your retirement. Every dollar you pay in taxes is a dollar that can’t be used to support your lifestyle and fund your goals. Fortunately, you can take action to reduce your tax burden and maximize your retirement income. Below are five steps to consider as you approach retirement: 1) Use a Roth IRA. A traditional IRA is an effective savings vehicle for retirement. You get tax-deferred growth, and potentially tax deductions for your contributions. However, a traditional IRA can also create tax issues in retirement. Most distributions from a traditional IRA are taxed as income. If you use an IRA to accumulate a sizable nest egg, you could face taxes on much of your income in retirement. The alternative is a Roth IRA. In a Roth IRA, you don’t get tax deductions when you make a contribution. However, your distributions in retirement are tax-free, assuming you are at least age 59 ½ and you have held the Roth for at least five years. As a married couple, you cannot contribute to a Roth if your income is greater than $196,000 in 2020. For a single person, that limit is $124,000. 1 Otherwise, you can contribute up to $6,000 this year, or up to $7,000 if you’re 50 or older. 2 You can also convert your traditional IRA to a Roth. This means paying taxes on the traditional IRA amount. However, after the conversion, you can grow the remaining assets in the Roth on a tax-free basis and take tax-free distributions in retirement. 2) Be strategic about Social Security distributions. Social Security will likely play a role in your retirement income puzzle. However, taxes will impact the net amount you receive from Social Security. The extent that your Social Security benefit is taxed depends on a number called your “combined income.” Combined income is your adjusted gross income plus nontaxable interest plus half of your Social Security benefit. 3 If you are single and your combined income is between $25,000 and $34,000, up to 50% of your benefits could be taxable. If you earn more than $34,000, up to 85% of your benefits could be taxable. 3. For married couples, if your combined income is between $32,000 and $44,000, up to 50% of your benefits could be taxed. If you earn more than $44,000, up to 85% of your benefits could be taxed. The key to reducing your combined income is to reduce your adjusted gross income. Non-taxable income is not included in that number. So, for example, you could maximize your Roth IRA to minimize your adjusted gross income. You could also delay Social Security until age 70 to increase your benefit, and draw down your taxable accounts, like a traditional IRA, before Social Security starts. 3) Consider downsizing. Simply moving to a new home could reduce your taxes. Property taxes may be a major tax burden depending on your home. If you no longer need a large home, consider moving to something smaller that has a lower value and thus lower property taxes. You also may look at a neighboring community that has a lower property tax rate. 4) Relocate to a more tax-friendly state. Another option is to move to another state completely. Some states are more tax-friendly for retirees than others. For example, Alabama doesn’t tax Social Security benefits and has a relatively low sales tax rate. 4 Florida is another option as it doesn’t have a state income tax. 5 Do your research and you may find a new home that is appealing and saves you money. 5) Use an HSA to pay for medical costs. Fidelity estimates that the average 65-year-old couple will pay $285,000 out-of-pocket for health care expenses in retirement. 6 If you’re using taxable distributions from an IRA or 401(k) to pay those costs, the impact on your savings could be even greater. One strategy to minimize the tax burden is to use a health savings account (HSA) to pay for healthcare costs. In 2020, individuals can contribute up to $3,550 to an HSA. Families can contribute up to $7,100. 7 You can invest and allocate those funds to match your goals and risk tolerance. The assets grow on a tax-deferred basis as long as they stay in the account. When you’re ready to use the funds, you can take tax-free distributions to pay for qualified healthcare expenses like premiums, deductibles, copays, and more. By using a tax-free source to pay for healthcare costs, you reduce the amount you need to take from taxable accounts, like an IRA or 401(k). That, in turn, reduces your overall tax burden. A financial professional can help you determine if an HSA is right for you. Ready to develop your retirement tax strategy? Let’s talk about it. Contact us today at Fuller Financial. We can help you analyze your needs and develop a plan. 1 https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/plan-participant-employee/amount-of-roth-ira-contributions-that-you-can-make-for-2020 2 https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/plan-participant-employee/retirement-topics-ira-contribution-limits 3 https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/planner/taxes.html#:~:text=Learn%20Apply%20Manage-,Income%20Taxes%20And%20Your%20Social%20Security%20Benefit,on%20your%20Social%20Security%20benefits.&text=between%20%2425%2C000%20and%20%2434%2C000%2C%20you,your%20benefits%20may%20be%20taxable. 4 https://money.usnews.com/money/retirement/baby-boomers/slideshows/the-most-tax-friendly-states-to-retire?slide=2 5 https://money.usnews.com/money/retirement/baby-boomers/slideshows/the-most-tax-friendly-states-to-retire?slide=4 6 https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/02/health-care-costs-for-retirees-climb-to-285000.html 7 https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/hr-topics/benefits/pages/irs-2020-hsa-contribution-limits.aspx The information contained herein is based on our understanding of current tax law. The tax and legislative information may be subject to change and different interpretations. We recommend that you seek professional legal advice for applicability to your personal situation. Licensed Insurance Professional. This information is designed to provide a general overview with regard to the subject matter covered and is not state specific. The authors, publisher and host are not providing legal, accounting or specific advice for your situation. By providing your information, you give consent to be contacted about the possible sale of an insurance or annuity product. This information has been provided by a Licensed Insurance Professional and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting insurance professional. The statements and opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change at any time. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, presenting insurance professional makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. This material has been prepared for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal, tax or investment advice. This information has been provided by a Licensed Insurance Professional and is not sponsored or endorsed by the Social Security Administration or any government agency. 20277 - 2020/7/2
By Nick Fuller August 5, 2020
We’re halfway through 2020, and the year has already been a rollercoaster. We’ve seen a global pandemic, record unemployment and racial protests across the country. And let’s not forget, there’s a presidential election campaign season in full swing.
By Nick Fuller July 22, 2020
It’s hard to find good news in today’s economic environment. COVID-19 single-handedly brought an end to the longest bull market in history and ushered in record-setting unemployment. If you’re like millions of others in the country, you’ve lost income or possibly even your job. You also may have lost savings due to market volatility. Given that the coronavirus pandemic is still ongoing, there’s no telling how the economy or the financial markets may respond through the rest of the year. Even in down years, there are still opportunities to improve your financial future. Below are three such moves to consider in your strategy: Fund a Roth IRA / 401(k) / 457 In 2020, you can contribute up to $6,000 to a Roth IRA, or up to $7,000 if you are 50 or older.1 A Roth can be helpful because you can take tax-free withdrawals from it after age 59 ½, assuming you’ve held the account for at least five years.. Not everyone can use a Roth. If you’re a married couple making more than $206,000 or a single person making more than $139,000, you can’t contribute to a Roth IRA.2 However, if a pay cut has pushed you below the income limits, you could use this time to open a Roth. Certain rules and limits differ for Roth 401k/457 money so please schedule a call or email me for those details. Convert your IRA or tax deferred money to a Roth. Another option is a Roth conversion. One of the biggest debts we owe is to the IRS and taxes on our IRA tax deferred money. An argument can be made that converting funds in a low tax environment, like we see now can make sense, versus paying our IRS debt later as taxes potentially rise (especially with all the recent stimulus spending).This is a process that converts a traditional tax deferred IRA into a Roth. This can be done all at once or stretched out over a period of years. You pay taxes on the amount you convert from your IRA and then the net amount is deposited into a new Roth IRA. You face a current tax liability, but you get potentially tax-free income in retirement. It may make sense to do a Roth conversion during a down year, when your income is reduced. You may be in a lower tax bracket and will thus face a lower tax bill on the conversion. A financial professional can help you explore this option. Dollar-cost average. Dollar-cost averaging is a strategy that can be helpful at all times, but especially during volatile periods. You contribute the same amount of money at regular intervals, such as once per month. That money is then invested in a predetermined strategy. The benefit of this is that you buy more shares when prices are low and fewer shares when prices are high. This reduces your overall cost, which increases your potential for growth. Again, a financial professional can help you implement a dollar-cost averaging strategy. We can help you determine the right strategy in this volatile time. Contact us today at Fuller Financial so we can help you develop a plan. Let’s connect soon and start the conversation. 1https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/plan-participant-employee/retirement-topics-ira-contribution-limits#:~:text=For%202020%2C%20your%20total%20contributions,less%20than%20this%20dollar%20limit. 2https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/plan-participant-employee/amount-of-roth-ira-contributions-that-you-can-make-for-2020 Investment advisory services offered by duly registered individuals through ChangePath, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. ChangePath, LLC and Fuller Financial, LLC are unaffiliated entities. Licensed Insurance Professional. This information is designed to provide a general overview with regard to the subject matter covered and is not state specific. The authors, publisher and host are not providing legal, accounting or specific advice for your situation. By providing your information, you give consent to be contacted about the possible sale of an insurance or annuity product. This information has been provided by a Licensed Insurance Professional and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting insurance professional. The statements and opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change at any time. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, presenting insurance professional makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. This material has been prepared for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal, tax or investment advice. This information has been provided by a Licensed Insurance Professional and is not sponsored or endorsed by the Social Security Administration or any government agency. 20199 - 2020/6/22
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